The battle for extra Champions League places: England stretches out in front

Two leagues will be rewarded with an extra place in next season’s UEFA Champions League (UCL) based on performance in Europe this season.Last season, Borussia Dortmund of the German Bundesliga and Bologna from Italian Serie A were the lucky recipients, with clubs in Germany and Italy outperforming those from England, France and Spain.With the UEFA Conference League (UCoL) league phase now complete, with the first clubs eliminated and key bonus points won, we can get our first snapshot of the standings.However, we’re a long way from finding out who will get the two spots, and the next key moment comes when the UEFA Europa League (UEL) first stage ends on Jan. 23, with the UCL following on Jan 29.Liverpool’s 100% Champions League record has the Premier League in pole position. Xinhua via Getty ImagesHow does it work?It’s about the collective performance of all teams from each country taking part in Europe this season. The two leagues with the best average coefficient scores get an extra place.Regardless of competition, each win is worth two coefficient points, a draw gets you one point, and you get nothing for a defeat.If a match goes to extra time, the score after 120 minutes is used. Penalties are not taken into account if the game is drawn, as they are used to determine the tie rather than the individual match.The points gained by all clubs are added together, and that total score is divided by the number of clubs a country has in Europe in the season. That gives the coefficient average. For example, if a country has 60 coefficient points and seven teams in Europe, its score is 8.571 for the table (60 / 7).The additional place goes to the first team in the league table outside the UCL places. So, in the Premier League it would go to fifth. It’s a place on top of the regular allocation, so if a league usually has seven places in Europe, it will have eight next season.So wins aren’t worth more in the Champions League?No, the coefficient system is essentially designed to assess the overall strength of leagues. Wins are the same in all competitions. Otherwise, it would be impossible for those leagues with few or no teams in the UCL group stage to move up the coefficient rankings.What about the new bonus points system?This is where things have changed, and performance in the UCL has become much more valuable than the UEL, and likewise the UCoL.Under the old system, the maximum bonus points for a club in the UCL was 12, and now it’s 18 (+6). In the UEL it’s up from eight to 10 (+2). In the UCoL, it has risen from four to six (+2).In addition, every club that participates in the UCL gets a minimum of six bonus points just for taking part (up from four). In the UEL, you have to finish first to get six bonus points. In the UCoL, Chelsea got four points for first place. There are no bonus in the UEL or UCoL if you finish outside the top 24.European competition bonus pointsPositionUCLUELUCoL112.0006.0004.000211.7505.7503.750311.5005.5003.500411.2505.2503.250511.0005.0003.000610.7504.7502.750710.5004.5002.500810.2504.2502.250910.0004.0002.000109.7503.7501.875119.5003.5001.750129.2503.2501.625139.0003.0001.500148.7502.7501.375158.5002.5001.250168.2502.2501.125178.0002.0001.000187.7501.7500.875197.5001.5000.750207.2501.2500.625217.0001.0000.500226.7500.7500.375236.5000.5000.250246.2500.2500.125256.0000.000.00266.0000.000.00276.0000.000.00286.0000.000.00296.0000.000.00306.0000.000.00316.0000.000.00326.0000.000.00336.0000.000.00346.0000.000.00356.0000.000.00366.0000.000.00There are then bonus points for reaching each of the knockout rounds, again weighted by competition.European bonus points – knockoutsPositionPer roundMaximumUCL1.5006.000UEL1.0004.000UCoL0.5002.000As well as those high bonus points for position, the teams who finish in the top eight of each league are guaranteed another 1.5 for reaching the round of 16.There are no bonus points for participating in the knockout playoffs in February in any of the competitions, but you do get points for the result of each leg which isn’t available to the top eight. Results in the knockout playoffs count to the league’s overall coefficient, but not the club’s.So that’s an advantage for the leagues with five UCL teams?Yes, and no.Coefficient points per winLeagueTeamsPoints per winGermany80.250Italy80.250England70.285Spain70.285France70.285Netherlands60.333Portugal50.400Belgium50.400While Serie A and the Bundesliga have five teams in the Champions League, they also have eight teams in Europe.Every win and bonus point is, when averaged, worth less than it is for the other leagues. And if a few teams struggle, there’s no chance of challenging for the top two.Italian clubs are holding up well, but German teams have struggled, with VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig outside the top 24 of the UCL and TSG Hoffenheim 26th in the UEL.Won’t this just turn out to be extra places for two top leagues?The new bonus-points system gives a bigger advantage to leagues with more teams in the UCL.If we look back at the previous six seasons, England and Spain take seven of the 12 slots, with Italy and Germany two each. Only in 2021-22 did one of the countries with fewer than four teams in the Champions League (the Netherlands) finish in the top two of average coefficient.History already told us that it’s highly likely two of the top leagues will have five places in the Champions League. Now that’s been strengthened.2023-24: Italy and Germany2022-23: England and Italy2021-22: England and the Netherlands2020-21: England and Spain2019-20: Spain and Germany2018-19: England and SpainHow did the Conference League play out?Lens failed to qualify for the league phase, which left Ligue 1’s hopes of challenging for the extra UCL places in tatters.Teams from the Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A and the Bundesliga are still active.Chelsea won all six of their matches and finished in first place, which gave them maximum points towards the Premier League score. Fiorentina joined Chelsea in going directly through to the round of 16.Portugal’s Guimaraes finished second, which has helped the Primeira Liga into contention. Belgium have two teams through, with Cercle Brugge automatically into the round of 16 and Gent in the playoff round.There is the potential for a round of 16 meeting between Chelsea and knockout playoff round participants Real Betis (LaLiga) or 1. FC Heidenheim (Bundesliga), which would create a head-to-head battle for coefficient points as well as progress in the UCoL.How does the coefficient table look this season?This is the top 10 as of Dec. 19.1. England, 14.0352. Italy, 12.5623. Portugal, 12.4504. Belgium, 11.9005. Spain, 11.8926. Germany, 10.6407. France, 9.9288. Sweden, 9.3759. Czechia, 8.70010. Cyprus, 8.687The top six countries all still have their full complement of teams, for now.England is in a very healthy position, but with lots of bonus points to come from the UCL and UEL it can quickly change.Portugal and Belgium have had superb league phases, but continuing that into the knockout rounds is difficult. When the Netherlands finished in the top two in 2021-22 it had multiple clubs deep into the tournaments.When do we usually find out who gets the extra places?In many seasons it can be obvious in March, once we know which leagues have multiple teams through to the quarterfinals of the three European competitions. But it’s likely to be later before there’s final confirmation.Last season, Serie A clinched an extra berth on April 18, with the Bundesliga following on May 1.It looked like it was going to be closer, but terrible results for English clubs in the quarterfinals, losing four of its five remaining teams, effectively handed second place to Germany.However, the 2019-20 season shows that it can go right down to the wire. Germany didn’t overtake the Premier League for second place until Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the final of the Champions League. If that’s repeated this season, we wouldn’t know which league gets the second additional spot until the UCL final on May 31.It would leave two clubs in the domestic leagues praying for the right result in the final. In 2019-20, Bayer Leverkusen and Leicester City finished fifth in Germany and England respectively. Leverkusen would have needed Bayern to win the UCL final to get the place, while Leicester required Bayern to lose the match.What’s the maximum number of places in the UCL and in Europe?Under the old system, a maximum of five clubs from one association could play in the Champions League. It meant that in the unlikely event that teams from the same league won the Champions League and Europa League, yet both finished outside the UCL places domestically, then fourth would have to surrender their place and drop into the UEL.But the cap has been removed and it will be possible for seven teams to get a place in the UCL: The top four, fifth through league performance in Europe, and the winners of the UCL and the UEL.It would also technically be possible, though highly unlikely, to have 11 teams in Europe: The usual allocation of seven, plus the extra Champions League place and the titleholders of all three European competitions.How does the extra place affect the other league positions?If we assume the extra spots will go to one of the top leagues, it means fifth place will enter the Champions League and it will have eight (rather than seven) places in Europe. Other European berths drop down a place.Any season the Premier League gets it, the access will be:Champions League: 1-5Europa League: 6, FA Cup winnersConference League: Carabao Cup winnersIf LaLiga, the Bundesliga or Serie A get it, the access will be:Champions League: 1-5Europa League: 6, Cup winnersConference League: 7In all cases if a team win the domestic cup and finish in a European place in the league, the spots drop down one more place.If a team win the UEL or UCL but don’t qualify for the UCL domestically, that league would have six places in the UCL — the five places to the leagues plus the UEL or UCL titleholders as an additional. The league would forfeit the domestic place earned by the titleholders.Last season, if Borussia Dortmund had won the Champions League, Germany would have had six teams (the top six) in the UCL but only one in the UEL — losing the spot earned by Dortmund.Which teams would benefit right now?Right now, Manchester City are fifth in the Premier League, with Lazio holding that spot in Serie A.